Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 transmission dynamics
Dr. Anandadeep Mandal, RKMV 1997
The seventh session of the Praktani Adda was conducted when COVID-19 was at its peak. There was fear roosting in every nook and corner concerning COVID transmission; hence all resources were being commissioned to understand the transmission pattern. The session was quite educating and answered many questions by providing one a peek into the expert’s way of cracking the transmission pattern.
The Adda was conducted by Dr. Anandadeep Mandal (RKMV 1997). An applied mathematician with a keen interest in formulating strategies through a ‘data-driven problem solving’ approach. His research underpins a desire to learn, understand and explain the complex dynamics of the critical issues in the society ranging from healthcare to economics.
The emergence of COVID-19 and the initial absence of pharmaceutical treatments led to many countries introducing a severe measures to contain the transmission of the novel Coronavirus. One such measure was lockdowns. Dr. Anandadeep in this session explained how lockdown was a knee jerk reaction that culminated into an economic blunder. During the session, he deliberated on how many union governments used mathematical models to mitigate the financial losses arising from the pandemic outbreak.
In the session, he explains how it was impractical, both economically and socially, to have indefinite lockdown periods. Consequently, the governments adopted a form of an exit strategy to relax social distancing norms while minimizing virus transmission.
A Ph.D. holder in applied mathematics from Canfield University, UK, and fellowships in the field of machine learning and computational dynamics from Princeton University and Rutgers University, USA, went on to explain how in implementing and timing such measures, policymakers relied heavily on mathematical models, facilitating evidence-based strategic policy interventions.
It was necessary to have a quantitative assessment of potential exit strategies. During this Adda, the speaker discussed designing and developing a deterministic transmission model that uses real-time data on confirmed cases requiring hospital care and mortality to predict the epidemic spread. Further discussions on the suite of scenarios assess the impact of different approaches to relaxing social distancing measures.
The educative Adda also touched upon critical issues like immunization, vaccine and herd immunity that became household buzzwords during the time. It was an educative and highly informative session for people who wanted to get an insight into the outbreak pattern of the pandemic and an excellent reference for the future in case of another such outbreak.
